QUICK LOOK - FORECASTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

INTRODUCTION

The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast)  is the most accurate and updated model available today. It is designed to replace the MM5 model and has been developed by U.S. National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with contributions from weather agencies and universities, both in the US and around the world.  The WRF model is being used in mesoscale meteorological modeling, including real-time forecasting, by government agencies and well-known universities, both in the U.S. (e.g., National Weather Service and NASA) and abroad (e.g., Europe, Hong Kong and Taiwan).  The WRF forecast covers most of Southeast Asia, from south China in the north to north Borneo in the south, and Myanmar in the west to the Phillipines in the east. It uses three nested modeling domains : the outer grid (Domain D01) is comprised of 75x51 grid cells with a grid resolution of 72 km;  an inner domain (D02) focusing on Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam has a finer resolution of 24 km with 109x82 grid cells; and, the innermost domain (D03) focuses on Vietnam with a fine resolution of 8 km and 112x211 cells. This innermost grid is only simulated during tropical storms and other emergencies. All three modeling grids use 28 vertical levels.

Four WRF forecasts, valid for 72 hours, are available daily and free of charge, for 00 UTC (07 A.M. Vietnam time), 06 UTC (1 P.M. Vietnam), 12 UTC (7 P.M. Vietnam) and 18 UTC (1 A.M. next day Vietnam).  Initial and boundary conditions have been derived from the NCEP GFS global analyses. The forecasts are updated with the latest weather information and reports from satellites, radars, weather stations, airports and ships in the region. The GFS global forecasts employ a coarse grid resolution of over 100 km. With a finer grid resolution (24 km in the inner domain), the WRF forecasts are expected to be more accurate than other Internet forecasts, such as those from CNN and Yahoo, that rely on these coarse global forecasts. Our WRF forecasts also provide predicted rainfall amount and wind speed, information that are important in storm emergency planning and make such task easier.  We hope that these WRF forecasts will be useful in emergency planning, such as storm alert and evacuation decisions, so that potential losses of both life and property can be minimized.

NOTES IN READING FORECAST MAPS

1. All times on the maps are UTC. To convert to local time in Vietnam, add 7 hours (Local time Vietnam= UTC + 7). For Myanmar, Local time = UTC + 6:30

2. Wind speed and direction are represented by wind barbs.  The direction the wind is blowing from is represented by a staff or wind direction line. Wind speed (in knots) is denoted by the barbs at the end of the wind direction line (short lines 5 knots; long lines 10 knots; flag 50 knots). Calm winds are indicated by O's.

3. Surface wind speed in knots ( 1 kt = 1.9 km/hr). 

FORECAST MAPS OF 24 KM DOMAIN (D02)

Surface Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
Accumulated Total Precipitation	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
850-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
700-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
500-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
300-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation

FORECAST MAPS OF 72 KM DOMAIN (D01)

Surface Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
Accumulated Total Precipitation	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
850-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
700-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
500-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation
300-mb Temperature & Winds	00	03	06	09	12	15	18	21	24	27	30	33	36	39	42	45	48	51	54	57	60	63	66	69	72	Animation

Last modified: Dec 10 , 2008